Natural gas storage facilities are a fundamental source of seasonal supply in Europe. Storage obligation set out in 2022 required all storage facilities to be filled up to 90% of their capacity by the start of withdrawal season. Some Member States with huge storage capacities compared to their annual gas consumption received derogation to this rule (AT, CZ, HU, LV, SK), and the target is set not to the working gas volume, but to 35% of their annual consumption.

Coupled with colder winter, and lower starting storage stocks foreshadow that European storages stocks will be used up by the end of the winter. In this short analysis we show how the 2026 Q1 winter might play out in various winter scenarios. 
A very cold winter scenario could leave European storages nearly depleted with 12%, below the historically lowest level of storage stocks by the end of withdrawal season. It is apparent that cold winter scenario may deplete European storages to 24% of their working gas capacity by the end of the withdrawal season. Even average winter temperatures may result in 29% fill-up by the end of March. A mild winter can close with stocks around 34%.