Building-heating related use of natural gas is highly temperature-dependent. Majority of buildings in Europe are heated with natural gas, which has been a stable and cheap fuel for the early 2000’s. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the curtailment of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, in tandem with Nord Stream 2 explosion and other geopolitical events created the energy crisis of 2021-2023, which caused an unprecedented price increase in the previously relatively cheap and abundant fuel, natural gas. Consequently, household end-user price of natural gas has increased 40% from 2021 to 2022 in Europe: this caused a swift reaction in gas demand.

Although the crisis is well documented and followed in media and academic articles, no thorough and detailed analysis of the relationship between natural gas demand and temperature is documented for the 2021-2024 period. In this short analysis we provide an EU27 wide assessment of gas demand and temperature relationship and describe how the gas consumption could develop in the first quarter of 2025.

Moreover, as a practical use case for the temperature-consumption relation, we provide an outlook for storage use in Q1 2025.